A lot of questions.
Is it a good time? Can I get a good deal or are prices going lower? What is involved? So much confusion, I read something different every day.
Buying a home is different now than it was in the last 10 or 15 years. Recently, buying a home was about the monetary investment. How much could you make? Don’t buy the largest or smallest home on the block. Finance as much as you can.
Now, we don’t know what to think. Housing values are going down. Thousands of families are losing their homes and the investment they represented. The news doesn’t seem to get better.
The fact is things are getting better and they are better for people who buy homes for the right reasons. First and foremost, a home provides shelter for its occupants. But after basic shelter needs are met, we want more. A home provides a refuge from daily life. It gives us a place to interact with family and friends. It is a place where we can enjoy hobbies or do anything we (legally) want to do without fear of others stopping us. But the ability of a particular home to meet those needs changes over time. Our family size changes. Our needs and wants expand and contract with our income. Economic conditions change and sometimes add to the cost of maintaining a home and our lives. These are the reasons that we should purchase a home, to improve our life somehow, to make sure that the environment in which we live most of our lives is something that enhances our life. And over the long run, homes have proven to be one of the best investments we can make even if the appreciation rate is low or negative in the short run.
Let me explain that last point first. Most of us are thinking how much our homes (and our stock portfolios) have lost over the past few years. It is time to quit dwelling on that and look at the opportunities that moving on provide. Lets say you live in a $500,000 home (at the peak) and it is now worth $400,000. That is a 25% decline in value. But if you bought that home prior to 2004, it is likely that the current value of the home is not much different than you paid for it and you may still have gained appreciation. If we looked back to when I started in this business, we told people that a home would appreciate at about the rate of inflation. That meant that if you bought a home today, you would have enough appreciation over the first year or so to cover the costs involved with selling that home. Of course, you also had a mortgage in which the payments included paying off some of the principle each month, which also increased your equity. Improvements you made to the home could increase the price as well. We were encouraged to make an additional payment now and again. And if we decided to move, to put all of our equity into the new home. The end game was not to get wealthy, it was to end up with a home that was paid off and the home could help us enjoy our retirement either by having no payments or by selling the home and having the equity help us keep our income up.
Taken in this context, most of us will find that the past few years of pricing declines will not be as burdensome as they look today. Sure people who purchased a home at the peak, and over bought to their means may have a longer term problem. But if we look at what is going on already in the market, we are seeing homes selling at an increasing pace and at increasing prices throughout the market. This trend is going to continue.
So the first thing we have to look at is how much equity do we really have in our current home. And if we move to a new home that satisfies our needs, and we can purchase it at a significant discount to the peak prices of a few years ago, we may not be off much from where we would have been if the housing bubble had not occurred.
Does that make sense?
Ok, lets look at the market today. What are the conditions? First, it appears that the bottom of the market was reached in the spring of this year. Sales are increasing and prices are increasing as well. It is true that more foreclosures will be coming on the market, but it appears that the over supply of homes is coming to an end. Why is this? Well, interest rates are low and prices have come off of their peaks by as much as 50%. This makes a new home much more affordable and it is the affordability that is drawing in new buyers by the droves. Also the general economic news is improving and when this happens, people have more confidence to make long term decisions. Third, new construction has virtually dried up meaning that there is no new supply being created but at the same time, household formations etc are going up. In fact within about three years, there will be a shortage of homes if this trend continues and we all know what that means. You might ask, but what about all of the foreclosures. Just because someone moves out of one house does not mean they don’t need a place to live. Those people are going into rentals or other housing arrangements that reduce the supply of housing, increase rent rates, which increases the value of apartments and rental properties. That is why you see investors buying up many of the homes in the lower price ranges. The bottom line is that we have shifted from a buyers (oversupply of homes) to a balanced market and we are heading for a sellers market soon.
This trend started in the lower price ranges and has now moved up into progressively higher ones. It will eventually get to all markets, but there is still time to get good values in the $500,000 and up range. New homes especially in the custom home area, will not be built to a significant degree until the sales prices reach the point where construction and development costs are less than the purchase price.
So what should you consider when you start thinking about moving.
We have put together a check sheet of questions that will help you decide what you should look at, where should it be and how much can you afford. Let’s go thru those now.
1. What is it that is causing you to think about moving? What isn’t right about your current situation.
- Is the house too small or too large?
- Is it too far away from work?
- Are you looking to be in a different school district?
- Have your hobbies or activities outgrown your home?
2. Once you have answered that it gets easier to answer this one. What will it take to meet those needs in your new home? Think about the ideal home and create it in your mind.
- How will you use the space in the new home? Sometimes just thinking about more or less rooms is not the answer. It is also how is the space laid out. With a proper allocation of space, you can actually find a home that will be smaller and meet your needs better.
- How do you want the rooms arranged? Go through each room in your ideal house and think of the uses it will be for. For instance if you’re a painter and would like a room that acts as a studio, the amount of light in that room and that the surfaces are easy to clean will be important. You might also want this room to be in a more private area of the home, so it can be messy at times without affecting the rest of the home. If you have students at home, do you need space for them to study and be on computers where you can see what is going on? Kids need their private space, but it is also important to keep track of what they are doing.
- How about the yard? A big lot or small? Do you want a pool?
- Now think about where is the house going to be? Your realtor will need you to define this closely because of laws about steering etc. You can tell your realtor about the neighborhood you want to be in and the requirements that you have, but they cannot make assumptions for you.
3.Find out what you can buy before you look. In today’s market you need to get a loan commitment from a lender up front. This will save time by making sure you look at properties you can afford and make negotiations easier when you find the house you want.
- It lets you know what price your new home should be, and how much you will need to put down.
- When you find the home you want, a loan commitment tells the seller that you are serious and ready to purchase. They will take your offer more seriously.
- It will allow you to cut the time between sale and closing which is good for everyone.
How can we help you move forward?
READ PART TWO »